MSPs returned from summer recess to the showpiece of the parliamentary term: the unveiling of the new legislative plans for the year ahead. This was Humza Yousaf’s first Programme for Government and while he has been in the job for only five months, many still don’t know what he truly stands for. Is he merely a continuity First Minister with little to distinguish himself from his predecessor? Amidst the 14 new Bills promised, what’s the overriding policy narrative driving him on?
The Programme for Government centred on three interlinked missions: equality, opportunity, community. Yousaf described his approach as “unashamedly anti-poverty” (who isn’t?) but also “pro-growth.” The fact these go hand-in-hand shouldn’t be regarded as novel, or some lurch to the right. They wouldn’t be out of place in the political lexicon of Kate Forbes who was labelled a ‘Tartan Tory’ during the SNP leadership campaign. Or during Alex Salmond’s period of governance for that matter, when he championed business-friendly social democracy.
The First Minister promised an open door to the business community and has been keen to stress the importance of resetting relationships which were often strained during Nicola Sturgeon’s tenure. But warm words need to be put into practice. According to a recent Fraser of Allander Institute poll, just 9% of respondents felt the Scottish Government understood business, demonstrating the challenge to win back trust. Moreover, the promise of a ‘New Deal for Business’ might ring hollow for many in the tourism industry who were protesting outside Holyrood due to the government’s short-term let licensing policy. Plans for alcohol marketing restrictions, widely thought to have been shelved earlier this year, have been brought back into view.
Alongside the New Deal, the Scottish Government will establish a new Small Business Unit and an Investor Unit. There will also be engagement through the Regulatory Review Group and Tax Advisory Group. In this often overlapping and confusing matrix, we shouldn’t forget the Advisory Council to the National Strategy on Economic Transformation, the Advisory Group on Economic Recovery, the Joint Taskforce on Business Regulation, the Principles Agreement with Business, not to mention the various sectoral Working Groups and Reviews.
Former Minister Ivan McKee previously spoke about the value of the “lived experience” of business helping formulate better public policy. But growth won’t come about through yet another advisory body. Keeping businesses on side can be relatively easy. They don’t need window-dressing or photo-ops. Businesses must be listened to – and crucially heard.
Prior to his speech, the First Minister called on the Prime Minister to cut corporation tax on renewables and AI amongst other things. Asking Rishi Sunak for tax cuts for robots and windmills detracts from the policy levers available at Holyrood to make Scotland more competitive and enterprising. That is where he must deliver first and foremost.
The SNP need to strike a balance between ‘equality and opportunity’ and remain fiscally credible (and that’s before considering the added difficulty of the influence of the Scottish Greens who are sceptical of economic growth). Spending commitments must be paid for, including the £1bn increased welfare spending resulting from these plans. This sets the somewhat challenging scene for Cabinet Secretary for Finance Shona Robison setting the 2024-25 Budget.
While pitching to business, the reaction from many progressive voices was mixed. The STUC said it “cannot pretend this was the radical, redistributive prospectus Scotland desperately needs”. However, there was plenty in there – from increased childcare provision to an expansion of free school meals, as well as boosts for social care worker pay. There’s also a pilot for a four-day working week.
Humza Yousaf would readily concede he has had an inauspicious start. Following his first Programme for Government, he will soon face his first proper electoral test with the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election against a Scottish Labour party buoyant in the polls. He will hope his legislative plans will help relaunch and re-energise his leadership, especially with a tricky UK General Election campaign in sight.
