After a bruising and bitterly fought contest, and one that at times seemed never-ending, the Cabinet Secretary for Health Humza Yousaf was today declared the new leader of the SNP. He will become Scotland’s next First Minister tomorrow. He triumphed in a ballot of 72,000 members, securing 52% of the final vote against the Cabinet Secretary for Finance Kate Forbes.
It was always going to be a two-horse race between Yousaf and Kate Forbes, with the second preferences of Ash Regan being key to determining the overall result. Given the problems that beset the Forbes campaign from the outset, this marks an uncomfortably close result for the new leader, especially as a majority voted for change.
In a contest that often focused on the personal rather than the political, Yousaf will face an uphill task to unite the party, let alone dealing with the substantial in-tray left by their predecessor on the domestic agenda.
For a party once known for its iron discipline, this campaign has been incredibly damaging for the SNP, much to the delight of their opponents at the continued public infighting. During the leadership contest, Kate Forbes was often scathing of Yousaf’s record in government, repeatedly declaring ‘continuity won’t cut it’.
What Happens Next?
While Humza Yousaf is now the SNP Leader, he will have to wait to become First Minister. He will need to secure the backing of MSPs, by a simple majority, in a vote tomorrow at the Scottish Parliament in order to become Scotland’s sixth (permanent) First Minister. There will then be a formal swearing in ceremony at the Court of Session on Wednesday.
The new SNP Leader will also be assembling his new frontbench team. With experienced ministers leaving the government, such as Deputy First Minister John Swinney, we can expect a widespread reshuffle of government positions. New Cabinet Secretaries and Ministers will be approved by the Scottish Parliament on Thursday ahead of Holyrood entering recess.
Main Challenges For Yousaf As SNP Leader
The new SNP Leader will have to engage in some challenging political plate-spinning: to run the Scottish Government as First Minister and deal with pressing policy issues; to forge a new path towards securing Scottish independence after the failure at the UK Supreme Court and keep the ‘Yes’ cause motivated; and to bring a fractious party together again.
Lingering in the background is the legacy of the former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon and her husband Peter Murrell, former SNP CEO. The latter resigned from his position earlier this month to take responsibility for misleading the press over SNP membership figures, after the party’s head of communications also resigned. There’s also the small matter of the Police Scotland investigation into possible fundraising fraud in the SNP which will loom ominously over the party in the months ahead.
What Will A Humza Yousaf Scottish Government Look Like?
Humza Yousaf was regarded as the ‘continuity candidate’ in the SNP leadership race with his two opponents being far more critical of the domestic record of Nicola Sturgeon.
He was arguably the candidate with the most experience in government – although question marks have been raised about his competency – having served as a junior minister in Alex Salmond’s administration but then as Cabinet Secretary for Justice and Cabinet Secretary for Health under Nicola Sturgeon.
Yousaf also amassed the most endorsements from his SNP MSP and MP colleagues, including many in the party hierarchy, and this should make it easier to find those suitable to fill his Cabinet.
Will The Continuity Candidate Change?
One of the main implications from Yousaf’s win is that the Cooperation Agreement with the Scottish Greens will remain in place as he remains wedded to the issue of gender recognition reform. Had Kate Forbes won, the Scottish Greens would have exited the government due to intractable differences.
However, Yousaf will also have to be mindful of his narrow margin of victory. This poses problems for a so-called ‘continuity candidate’ when so many expressed support for change. He will have to decide what elements of his predecessor’s agenda to keep and which to amend or drop. There’s also the prospect of renewed backbench opposition within the SNP given all that has occurred during the leadership contest.
Scotland’s next First Minister will have numerous policy challenges to grapple with in the weeks ahead: from addressing the cost-of-living crisis, to how to progress with gender recognition reforms, fixing problems with the NHS and establishing a National Care Service, to deciding what to do with the controversial deposit return scheme.
But this result doesn’t just matter for Scottish politics but those of the UK too. The SNP are currently the third largest party at Westminster and their political fortunes could determine an easier path to Downing Street for Sir Keir Starmer should Scottish Labour be able to capitalise on any difficulties and recapture former voters who have drifted to the nationalist cause.
