The SNP gathered in Aberdeen over the weekend for their first in-person conference since all the way back to October 2019. While the party had held virtual conferences during the pandemic, nothing compares to meeting with colleagues in the flesh rather than via a laptop screen.
Despite this, the conference mood was muted. Attendance numbers were down – perhaps unsurprisingly due to the cost crisis and industrial action on the railways – and this didn’t feel like a party who believed they were on the cusp of a second independence referendum next year.
Policy-lite and drama-free
However, while it may have lacked the buzz of immediate post-2014 conferences when the party experienced a deluge of new members, it’s not necessarily a bad thing to have an uneventful get-together. After all, the Conservatives conference in Birmingham a few days before was more akin to a wake than a gathering of the party faithful.
Nor did there appear to be any really contentious debates or policy resolutions. Most of the keynote speeches focused almost singularly on attacking the Conservatives after the fallout of the disastrous mini-Budget. The conference was also policy-lite, although there were a few announcements by the First Minister, including increases to child benefit and a £20bn investment fund using oil revenues when Scotland becomes independent. Another paper on the economics of independence would be published next week.
And there was news that the SNP would be creating its own broadcast platform.
Tory-bashing, mostly blue but some red
The only minor headache for Nicola Sturgeon was the criticism of her remarks about ‘despising’ the Conservatives, a party that retains a significant vote in Scotland. It was a storm in a teacup; and the thing is, the feeling is entirely mutual. Yet such language didn’t sit well with her conference speech calling on SNP members to “speak less to each other, and more to those outside our ranks…And for those who want to be convinced but still have questions and doubts…It is our job to persuade, reassure and inspire.”
Tory-bashing was a common theme throughout the event, as it is every year but there was added impetus this time round. The Deputy First Minister John Swinney labelled them “reckless hypocrites”, while Westminster Leader Ian Blackford turned his ire towards the“disastrous duo”of Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng.
Interestingly, Depute Leader Keith Brown criticised Labour, an attack no doubt motivated by a series of polls showing Labour are expected to gain seats at the expense of the Conservatives in Scotland. The Depute Leader said Starmer was “just another Tony Blair” and it was “laughable” to suggest that a Labour government at Westminster would be any better for Scotland. The fact is that a rejuvenated Labour under Starmer is a much tougher proposition for the SNP than the current Tory Government and many won’t buy the ‘red Tory’ rhetoric.
The Independence Generation
For now, Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP remain the dominant force in Scottish politics.
Sturgeon told delegates that they were the “independence generation” and the audience lapped up the talk of another independence referendum. Her speech did take place in the context of the UK Supreme Court hearing over Holyrood’s power to hold a second indyref. Constitutional experts have commented that it would appear unlikely that the Supreme Court would find in favour of the Scottish Government.
She promised the independence movement would “reflect” if they lost in the courts. That would leave them with the back-up plan of putting the case of independence to the people in an election, whereby if more than 50% support pro-independence parties, this would serve as a mandate to enter negotiations for separation.
Fighting the next UK General Election on a single-issue is fraught with danger. A Labour Government could dampen support for independence. And there are only so many times you can march your political troops up the hill before marching them down again.
Her activists, for the most part, remain resolutely behind their leader but how long they are prepared to wait for another referendum?
